📈 Bitcoin Price with Halvings
📉 Drawdown from ATH
😱 Fear & Greed Index
🔄 Cycle Overlay (Indexed to Halving)
⛏️ The Halving & Bitcoin's Fixed Supply
Every cycle on this page is built around one event: the halving. Every 210,000 blocks (roughly every 4 years), the reward paid to miners for creating new bitcoin is cut in half. This isn't a policy decision anyone can vote on or change — it's written into the code every Bitcoin node runs, and changing it would require the entire network to agree to break consensus.
| Halving | Date | Block | Reward | Cumulative Supply | % of 21M Cap |
|---|
Why this matters: Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21,000,000 coins, ever. No central bank, company or government can create more — unlike a fiat currency (a central bank can print more, the very thing behind the inflation numbers elsewhere on this site), a stock (a company can issue new shares, diluting existing holders), or even gold (still mined every year, with no fixed cap — global gold supply grows roughly 1.5-2% a year).
Each halving doesn't just cut miner rewards — it cuts the rate new bitcoin enters circulation. By the 2024 halving, 93.75% of all bitcoin that will ever exist had already been mined. The remaining supply keeps shrinking on a schedule fixed since 2009: eventually, around the year 2140, the block reward rounds down to zero and no new bitcoin will ever be created again.
Some analysts argue this shrinking new supply, against steady or growing demand, is part of what drives Bitcoin's roughly four-year cycles — though as the shrinking ROI in the "Stats per Cycle" table below shows, that effect (if real) looks like it's getting weaker with each cycle, not stronger. Whether that makes Bitcoin a good investment is a separate question — the rest of this page gives the honest, historical answer — but the supply mechanism itself is real, mathematical, and not up for debate.
📊 Max ROI per Cycle
⏱️ Days to Top
📋 Stats per Cycle
| Cycle | Halving | Halving Price | Top Price | Max ROI | Days to Top | Days So Far |
|---|
💰 Simulator — how much would the same investment return in each cycle?
| Cycle | Max ROI | Final Value | Profit |
|---|
The entry price doesn't factor into this at all — only the % gain does, because the $ profit is always investment × ROI. That's why "BTC is expensive" is a misleading way to think about it: what determines your profit is the return from today onward, not the coin's current price. Cycle 4 has a much lower % because Bitcoin is already an established asset — but that also means it's normal today to invest amounts that almost nobody invested in earlier cycles, which offsets the lower %.
🔮 10-Year Projection — scenarios, not a forecast
Each scenario assumes a constant annual growth rate, derived from cycles that are already complete — Cycle 1 is left out because it was Bitcoin's bootstrapping phase, with prices near zero, which would distort everything. This is not a forecast: it's "what if Bitcoin repeats one of these paces".
| Scenario | Assumed Annual Rate | Value at 10 Years | Profit |
|---|
⚠️ Past performance does not guarantee future results. Educational tool, not investment advice.
📖 What "Assumed Annual Rate" really means
It is not a simple average of past yearly returns. It's a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate): the constant annual % that, compounded with no ups or downs at all, would produce that exact same total gain over the exact same number of days that the real cycle took.
Say a cycle gained +750.8% over 1,402 days (≈3.84 years). That didn't happen smoothly — it had months of sharp rallies and months of deep drawdowns. The CAGR answers a different question: "if this cycle had grown by the exact same % every single year, with zero variation, what would that % have to be to reach the same final result?" It's a way of flattening a lumpy real result into one clean annual number — not a record of what actually happened year by year.
Formula used, for each cycle:
rate = (1 + Cycle ROI)^(365 / Days to Top) − 1
- Conservative — half of the current cycle's CAGR (Cycle 4, still ongoing).
- Intermediate — the current cycle's CAGR, held steady with no further slowdown.
- Optimistic — the CAGR of the last fully completed cycle (Cycle 3).
Important: Bitcoin has never actually grown this smoothly. Real years have ranged from roughly -70% (2018) to well over +150% (2020, 2023) — the "Cycle Overlay" chart at the top of this tab shows just how jagged the real path is. The annual rate here is a mathematical equivalent used to project forward, not a claim that Bitcoin will rise by that exact % every single year.
📊 MVRV Ratio — Buy/Sell Zones
🔗 Live Network
| Block | Mined | Miner | Transactions | Size |
|---|
Live data straight from the Bitcoin network's mempool and most recent blocks — fetched directly from the free, public mempool.space API (open source, no key required), refreshed automatically. This shows real network activity — blocks being mined, transactions waiting to confirm — not "who is buying Bitcoin right now": that's private information held by exchanges, not something visible on the public blockchain.
📊 ROI by Days Post-Halving — Comparison Between Cycles
📋 Comparison at Specific Days
🎯 Buy Zone Score Over Time (vs. Price)
📉 Real Bottom of Each Cycle — the "Perfect Timing"
| Cycle | Cycle Top | Real Bottom | Drawdown at Bottom | Score at Bottom | Days Since Halving | Buy at Halving | Buy at Bottom |
|---|
✅ Backtest: Does a High Score Predict a High Return?
| Score Band | # Days | Return @180d (avg / median) | Return @365d (avg / median) | Return @730d (avg / median) |
|---|
📖 What this score is, in plain language
The 0-100 number is not a probability percentage of the price going up or down. It's a comparative index: it measures how similar today's conditions are to the conditions that existed at the best (or worst) historical moments to buy Bitcoin.
100 doesn't mean "it will definitely go up" — it means current conditions are as extreme in fear/discount as the worst crashes ever seen (e.g. -84% in Jan/2015, -83% in Dec/2018). 0 is the opposite: total euphoria, stretched price, just like near historical tops. The closer to 100, the more the market resembles a historical bottom; the closer to 0, the more it resembles a historical top.
| Band | What it means |
|---|---|
| 80–100 | Strong Buy — panic/discount level comparable to the biggest bottoms in history |
| 60–80 | Buy — significant correction, favourable but not extreme conditions |
| 40–60 | Neutral — neither cheap nor expensive by historical standards |
| 20–40 | Wait — market already heated up |
| 0–20 | Top Zone — euphoria, level comparable to the biggest tops in history |
How it's calculated: combines four indicators, each also on a 0-100 scale, then averaged with weights:
- Drawdown from ATH (35% weight) — how much the price has already fallen from its all-time high. A drop of -80% or more scores 100 points.
- MVRV Ratio (30% weight) — compares Bitcoin's market value with the "average cost" of everyone who bought it (realized value). Below 1 usually means the market, on average, is underwater — historically a bottom zone. Above 3.5-4, a top zone.
- Puell Multiple (20% weight) — compares the USD value of Bitcoin mined per day with the average of the last 365 days. Measures miner financial health: when they earn far less than normal (below ~0.3x), it usually signals capitulation — miners selling at a loss, forced to shut down equipment, historically near market bottoms. When they earn far more than normal (above ~4x), it's usually a sign of euphoria, historically near tops.
- Fear & Greed Index (15% weight) — a sentiment index (0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed) built from volatility, volume, social media, etc. Only exists since Feb/2018, so in older cycles the score relies on the other three indicators.
Important: this score is built from just 4 historical Bitcoin cycles — a small sample. It's a decision-support tool based on past patterns, not a guarantee of future results.
📊 Nominal ROI per Cycle — BTC vs Other Assets
📋 Nominal ROI by Cycle
| Cycle | Bitcoin | S&P 500 | Gold | Bonds (AGG) |
|---|
💸 After Inflation & Taxes — what you'd actually keep
| Asset | Nominal Value | Real Value (US, after tax + inflation) | Real Value (Europe avg., after tax + inflation) |
|---|
Order of the maths: tax is applied to the nominal profit first (that's how tax authorities actually do it — they tax the gain you made, not its inflation-adjusted value), then the after-tax total is deflated by the average annual inflation for that cycle's period to show today's purchasing power. US: flat ≈15% (typical long-term capital gains bracket — all cycles here qualify as "long-term", held over a year). Europe: flat ≈17.7%, the actual EU Member State average (source: Tax Foundation Europe, "Capital Gains Tax Rates in Europe" — top marginal rate on long-held listed shares, surtaxes included) — deliberately not a single country's rate, since it varies enormously across the EU: 0% in several countries (e.g. Cyprus, Greece, Luxembourg, Malta), up to 42% in Denmark. Crypto specifically varies even more — some countries (e.g. Portugal, Germany, Slovenia) fully exempt long-held crypto, most don't. Real tax depends on your country, income bracket and personal situation — check your own country's rules. Inflation is the average annual US CPI for that period (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) — not a live, day-by-day series. This is an educational illustration, not tax or investment advice.