BTC Cycle Analysis — DAAZPRIME

📈 Bitcoin Price with Halvings

📉 Drawdown from ATH

😱 Fear & Greed Index

🔄 Cycle Overlay (Indexed to Halving)

📊 Max ROI per Cycle

⏱️ Days to Top

📋 Stats per Cycle

Cycle	Halving	Halving Price	Top Price	Max ROI	Days to Top	Days So Far

Note — "Days to Top": simply the number of days between the halving date and the day the price hit its highest point in that cycle (the top is only searched within that cycle's window, i.e. between that halving and the next one — never mixing data from different cycles). It's not an average nor a forecast, it's the real day count for that specific cycle. "Max ROI" is the price appreciation, in percentage, between the halving day and that top day.

💰 Simulator — how much would the same investment return in each cycle?

If you invested at the halving and sold at the top:

Cycle	Max ROI	Final Value	Profit

The entry price doesn't factor into this at all — only the % gain does, because the $ profit is always investment × ROI. That's why "BTC is expensive" is a misleading way to think about it: what determines your profit is the return from today onward, not the coin's current price. Cycle 4 has a much lower % because Bitcoin is already an established asset — but that also means it's normal today to invest amounts that almost nobody invested in earlier cycles, which offsets the lower %.

🔮 10-Year Projection — scenarios, not a forecast

Uses the same amount as above. Each scenario assumes a constant annual growth rate over 10 years, derived from cycles that are already complete — Cycle 1 is left out because it was Bitcoin's bootstrapping phase, with prices near zero, which would distort everything. This is not a forecast: it's "what if Bitcoin repeats one of these paces".

Scenario	Assumed Annual Rate	Value at 10 Years	Profit

⚠️ Past performance does not guarantee future results. Educational tool, not investment advice.

📊 MVRV Ratio — Buy/Sell Zones

📊 ROI by Days Post-Halving — Comparison Between Cycles

📋 Comparison at Specific Days

How it works: the score combines Drawdown from ATH (35%), MVRV Ratio (30%), Puell Multiple (20%) and Fear & Greed (15%) on a 0-100 scale. When some data is missing (Fear & Greed only exists since Feb 2018), the remaining weights are automatically rebalanced — that's why Cycle 1 relies on drawdown + MVRV + Puell, without FnG. The score is validated by the backtest below: it groups every historical day by band and measures the real average/median return that followed — if the method works, higher bands should precede bigger returns.

🎯 Buy Zone Score Over Time (vs. Price)

📉 Real Bottom of Each Cycle — the "Perfect Timing"

Cycle	Cycle Top	Real Bottom	Drawdown at Bottom	Score at Bottom	Days Since Halving	Buy at Halving	Buy at Bottom

✅ Backtest: Does a High Score Predict a High Return?

Score Band	# Days	Return @180d (avg / median)	Return @365d (avg / median)	Return @730d (avg / median)

📖 What this score is, in plain language

The 0-100 number is not a probability percentage of the price going up or down. It's a comparative index: it measures how similar today's conditions are to the conditions that existed at the best (or worst) historical moments to buy Bitcoin.

100 doesn't mean "it will definitely go up" — it means current conditions are as extreme in fear/discount as the worst crashes ever seen (e.g. -84% in Jan/2015, -83% in Dec/2018). 0 is the opposite: total euphoria, stretched price, just like near historical tops. The closer to 100, the more the market resembles a historical bottom; the closer to 0, the more it resembles a historical top.

Band	What it means
80–100	Strong Buy — panic/discount level comparable to the biggest bottoms in history
60–80	Buy — significant correction, favourable but not extreme conditions
40–60	Neutral — neither cheap nor expensive by historical standards
20–40	Wait — market already heated up
0–20	Top Zone — euphoria, level comparable to the biggest tops in history

How it's calculated: combines four indicators, each also on a 0-100 scale, then averaged with weights:

Drawdown from ATH (35% weight) — how much the price has already fallen from its all-time high. A drop of -80% or more scores 100 points.
MVRV Ratio (30% weight) — compares Bitcoin's market value with the "average cost" of everyone who bought it (realized value). Below 1 usually means the market, on average, is underwater — historically a bottom zone. Above 3.5-4, a top zone.
Puell Multiple (20% weight) — compares the USD value of Bitcoin mined per day with the average of the last 365 days. Measures miner financial health: when they earn far less than normal (below ~0.3x), it usually signals capitulation — miners selling at a loss, forced to shut down equipment, historically near market bottoms. When they earn far more than normal (above ~4x), it's usually a sign of euphoria, historically near tops.
Fear & Greed Index (15% weight) — a sentiment index (0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed) built from volatility, volume, social media, etc. Only exists since Feb/2018, so in older cycles the score relies on the other three indicators.

Important: this score is built from just 4 historical Bitcoin cycles — a small sample. It's a decision-support tool based on past patterns, not a guarantee of future results.